Markets, ETFs and indicators, explained

A working reference for the questions that come up while you are actually looking at a market — not a glossary. Each topic answers one of them end to end, with the arithmetic shown and the caveats stated.

The indicator topics cover what an RSI period and a 50- or 200-day moving average really measure, and how to read a trailing versus a forward price-to-earnings ratio. The instrument topics deal with what you can actually buy: which exchanges an ETF trades on and why one fund has several tickers, what an ISIN is and how to get from one to an issuer's full holdings file, how short-term Treasury ETFs such as SGOV pay out, and where to move money when you expect equities to fall. The rest are the practical questions with real money attached — how dividends, coupons and capital gains are taxed across EU countries, how EUR/USD trades on margin at Interactive Brokers, whether a company should invest its idle cash through the business or personally, and who is financing the AI data-centre build-out.

Educational material about markets and instruments — not investment, tax or legal advice. Several topics quote figures as a stated snapshot; check live numbers before acting on any of them.

• What is a macro view? Top-down macroeconomic analysis

  What a macro view is: the six macroeconomic layers — growth, inflation, policy, credit, currency, volatility — how they transmit, and how to build one.

• The yield curve and 2s10s: inversion and steepening, explained

  What the yield curve and the 2s10s spread measure, why an inversion has come before most US recessions, and why it moves the odds, not the date.

• Credit spreads explained: investment-grade and high-yield OAS

  What investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads measure, why the option-adjusted spread is the standard gauge, and how widening reads as stress.

• VIX term structure and the MOVE index, explained

  How to read the VIX, its term structure (contango vs backwardation, VIX/VIX3M) and the MOVE index of Treasury volatility, and what none of them can tell you.

• Reading a P/E ratio (trailing vs forward)

  What a price-to-earnings ratio measures, how trailing and forward P/E differ, and why a low multiple is not automatically cheap.

• Are we in an earnings bubble? (2000's dot-com giants vs today) interactive view

  The biggest companies of the 2000 dot-com peak set against today's mega caps — earnings, multiples, and what happened next.

• RSI, SMA and EMA — what each period actually shows

  Why RSI is set to 14, what the 50- and 200-day moving averages track, and how an EMA differs from an SMA at the same period.

• How the AI build-out is financed (the 2026 credit circle)

  Who funds the AI data-centre build-out: vendor financing, private credit, and the circular deals tying chipmakers, clouds and lenders together.

• ISIN meaning

  What an ISIN is, how it differs from a ticker, and how to get from an ISIN to an ETF issuer's full holdings file.

• Find your ETF markets

  How to find which exchanges an ETF trades on, why one fund has several tickers, and which listing to buy from a European broker.

• How T-bill ETFs pay you (SGOV)

  How short-term Treasury ETFs like SGOV actually pay out, what a monthly distribution looks like, and the euro equivalents for EU investors.

• Hedging out of stocks in a downturn

  Where to move money when you expect equities to fall — cash, money-market funds, short Treasuries and gold — and what each one costs.

• Trading EUR/USD forex on IBKR

  How EUR/USD trades on Interactive Brokers: margin, financing cost, the rate differential that drives the pair, and what leverage risks.

• Options, before you trade one (calls, puts and what they cost) interactive view

  What an options contract is, the Greeks in plain words, what sets the price, how to size a position, short puts in numbers, and US vs European markets.

• EU investment taxes by country & instrument

  How dividends, coupons and capital gains are taxed across EU countries, and where an accumulating UCITS ETF changes the answer.

• Investing company cash (and what actually cuts year-end tax)

  How a company can invest idle cash, and whether investing through the business or personally leaves more after corporate and dividend tax.