Quick report · Week 40 · Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2026

MacroView 2026-W40 — Quick report

Fri Oct 2 close · the week in heat maps — cross-asset, volatility, sectors, hedges, theme baskets — plus the week-ahead earnings and dividend calendar

7,722.72S&P 500 · 1W via SPY-0.2%

15.31VIX · 1W+3.0%

5.24%10Y Treasury (FRED)+0.06 pp · Thu Sep 24→Thu Oct 1

$4,162Gold /oz · 1W-3.7%

$91.11WTI crude · 1W-1.4%

101.93Dollar index (DXY) · 1W+1.0%

Summary

S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq 100 +0.7%; XLK led sectors at +1.8%, XLV trailed at -2.6%.
Rates up: 10Y 5.24% (+0.06 pp, Thu Sep 24→Thu Oct 1), long Treasuries (TLT, price) -2.3%, gold -3.7%, dollar +1.0%; rate vol (MOVE) +11.8% to 107.29.
Equity vol: stress 18.6 (Risk-On), VIX 15.31; week ahead holds 4 $10B+ reports (RPM, STZ, PEP, DAL).

Market state

S&P 500 -0.2%, Nasdaq 100 +0.7% and Russell 2000 -0.2% on the week; volatility regime Risk-On (stress 18.6), rotation tilt risk-on on Friday, cycle read “Late cycle”.

Cross-asset — 1W % (Fri Sep 25 → Fri Oct 2 close)

DXY+1.0%US Dollar

QQQ+0.7%Nasdaq 100

BTC+0.7%Bitcoin

ETH+0.4%Ethereum

SPY-0.2%S&P 500

IWM-0.2%Russell 2000 · small cap

USDJPY-0.6%Dollar / Yen

EURUSD-1.0%Euro / Dollar

HYG-1.2%High Yield

WTI-1.4%Crude Oil

TLT-2.3%Long Treasuries

XAU-3.7%Gold

Price change, not total return. Source: macro snapshot quotes.

Volatility

Stress score 18.6 (Risk-On); VIX 15.31 (+3.0% 1W), VIX/VIX3M 0.85 (contango); biggest 1W rise MOVE +11.8% to 107.29.

Volatility stress score (0–100)

Risk-OnNeutralCautiousRisk-Off18.6

Bands as the dataset labels them: Risk-On <25 · Neutral <45 · Cautious <65 · Risk-Off.

S&P 500 implied-vol term structure — level by tenor

10.76VIX1D
12.06VIX9D
15.31VIX
18.01VIX3M
20.15VIX6M
21.76VIX1Y

VIX/VIX3M ratio 0.85: contango. 30-day implied 15.31 vs 20-day realized 10.23 (spread +5.08).

Vol gauges — 1W % change (a rise reads red)

MOVE+11.8%107.29 · 1y rank 87

VXTLT+8.9%17 · 1y rank 85

GVZ+3.5%23.23 · 1y rank 20

VIX+3.0%15.31 · 1y rank 10

RVX+1.7%20.23 · 1y rank 15

VXN+1.6%21.2 · 1y rank 24

VIX6M+0.7%20.15 · 1y rank 4

VIX1Y+0.7%21.76 · 1y rank 8

VIX3M+0.4%18.01 · 1y rank 5

SKEW+0.0%144.88 · 1y rank 52

VVIX-0.9%87.02 · 1y rank 9

VIX9D-5.5%12.06 · 1y rank 14

OVX-7.4%51 · 1y rank 24

VIX1D-14.0%10.76 · 1y rank 12

Sub-line: current level · 1-year IV rank (0 = 52-week low, 100 = high).

Sectors

3 of 11 sector SPDRs rose on the week; XLK led (+1.8%), XLV trailed (-2.6%).

The 11 sector SPDRs — sorted by 1W

Sector	1D %	1W %	1M %	3M %
XLK Technology	+1.0%	+1.8%	+8.8%	+10.6%
XLE Energy	+0.2%	+1.3%	-3.5%	+18.0%
XLU Utilities	+0.4%	+0.8%	-6.7%	-13.0%
XLI Industrials	+0.8%	-0.3%	-1.6%	-7.6%
XLY Consumer Disc.	+1.1%	-0.5%	-4.2%	-6.0%
XLRE Real Estate	+0.3%	-1.8%	-6.7%	-8.7%
XLB Materials	+0.7%	-1.9%	-7.7%	-6.1%
XLP Consumer Staples	+0.2%	-1.9%	-5.8%	-5.2%
XLC Communication Svcs	+0.3%	-2.3%	-1.9%	+0.7%
XLF Financials	+0.1%	-2.5%	-7.2%	-3.8%
XLV Health Care	+0.0%	-2.6%	-3.9%	+1.5%

1D = the Fri Oct 2 session. Each column is shaded on its own scale.

Energy, hedges & gold

Gold -3.7% on the week to $4,162, 21.7% below its peak, with the 10Y real yield at 2.88% (Thu Oct 1); WTI -1.4%.

Energy, metals, bonds & the dollar — 1W %

XOP+1.9%Oil & gas E&P

XLE+1.3%Energy SPDR

DXY+1.0%US dollar

SHY+0.1%1–3Y Treasury

TIP-0.4%TIPS

IEF-0.7%7–10Y Treasury

HYG-0.8%High yield

LQD-0.9%IG credit

WTI-1.4%WTI crude

TLT-1.9%20Y+ Treasury

HG-2.2%Copper

OIH-2.8%Oil services

XAU-3.7%Gold

PL-4.2%Platinum

NG-5.0%Natural gas

XAG-6.0%Silver

Treasury and credit tiles are total-return ETF moves (bonds heatmap, as of Fri Oct 2); the rest are price moves. Gold miners: the miners dataset carries no 1W figure (3M only — GDX 3M +11.9%), so no tile.

Theme baskets

Every basket grid is 1W (Fri Sep 25 → Fri Oct 2 close) except the semis lane (1D); median 1W: Optics & networking +6.0% at the top, Biotech & pharma -2.9% at the bottom.

Mag 7 — 1W %

NVDA+3.9%NVIDIA

AMZN+0.7%Amazon

MSFT+0.3%Microsoft

GOOGL-0.1%Alphabet

TSLA-0.4%Tesla

AAPL-2.2%Apple

META-3.1%Meta Platforms

7 names · median -0.1% · 3 up, 4 down.

Semis — risk-rotation lane, 1D % (Fri Oct 2 session only)

CAMT+7.4%

AMKR+5.9%

AEHR+5.5%

ARM+5.2%

KLIC+4.9%

TXN+4.4%

RMBS+4.4%

AVGO+3.4%

KLAC+3.3%

ASML+3.2%

ADI+3.1%

TSM+3.0%

AMD+3.0%

NVMI+2.5%

LRCX+2.2%

AMAT+2.0%

SIMO+1.9%

NXPI+1.9%

MRVL+1.6%

QCOM+1.5%

SKHY+0.8%

FORM+0.5%

INTC-0.6%

ALAB-1.7%

MU-2.0%

SNDK-3.8%

STX-10.2%

WDC-10.2%

28 names · lane median +2.32% · SOXX +2.18% · SMH +2.07%. This lane is a one-day read; it is not on the 1W window the other grids use.

AI infrastructure — 1W %

ORCL+3.8%Oracle

CRWV+2.3%CoreWeave

NBIS+2.3%Nebius Group

SKYY+2.1%First Trust Cloud

EQIX+1.7%Equinix

AMZN+0.7%Amazon

MSFT+0.3%Microsoft

DOCN+0.2%DigitalOcean

DLR+0.0%Digital Realty

GOOGL-0.1%Alphabet

IBM-1.3%IBM

WULF-1.6%TeraWulf

DTCR-2.0%Global X Data Center

META-3.1%Meta Platforms

APLD-3.3%Applied Digital

BIDU-3.4%Baidu

BABA-3.5%Alibaba

NTTYY-4.0%NTT

TCEHY-4.6%Tencent

GLXY-4.9%Galaxy Digital

CORZ-5.1%Core Scientific

IREN-5.4%IREN

HUT-7.4%Hut 8

CIFR-11.4%Cipher Mining

RIOT-14.2%Riot Platforms

GDS-15.9%GDS Holdings

26 names · median -2.5% · 8 up, 18 down. Dropped: 018260.KS (non-US listing), 300442.SZ (non-US listing), GMG.AX (non-US listing), IOS.DE (non-US listing), MRL.MC (non-US listing), NXT.AX (non-US listing).

Optics & networking — 1W %

VIAV+15.8%Viavi

LITE+15.3%Lumentum

AAOI+14.0%Applied Optoelectronics

COHR+13.9%Coherent

MTSI+12.6%MACOM

FN+11.1%Fabrinet

UI+10.7%Ubiquiti

CIEN+9.6%Ciena

SITM+7.1%SiTime

SMTC+6.9%Semtech

CLS+6.0%Celestica

CSCO+5.2%Cisco

GLW+4.8%Corning

CRDO+3.6%Credo

APH+3.4%Amphenol

FFIV+2.5%F5

XTL+2.2%SPDR S&P Telecom

NOK+2.0%Nokia

TEL+0.8%TE Connectivity

ANET+0.4%Arista Networks

ERIC-2.5%Ericsson

21 names · median +6.0% · 20 up, 1 down. Dropped: FIVG (last close 2026-07-17).

Cybersecurity — 1W %

S+12.0%SentinelOne

QLYS+11.9%Qualys

OKTA+8.4%Okta

RBRK+8.2%Rubrik

PANW+7.6%Palo Alto Networks

CRWD+7.1%CrowdStrike

FTNT+4.3%Fortinet

HACK+4.0%Amplify Cybersecurity

CIBR+3.7%First Trust Nasdaq Cyber

CVLT+3.3%Commvault

VRNS+2.9%Varonis

ZS+1.8%Zscaler

GEN+1.7%Gen Digital

NTSK+0.5%Netskope

CHKP-0.7%Check Point

SAIL-1.0%SailPoint

16 names · median +3.9% · 14 up, 2 down.

Developer tools — 1W %

FROG+7.1%JFrog

TWLO+6.8%Twilio

ESTC+6.6%Elastic

GTLB+6.3%GitLab

U+5.0%Unity

DDOG+3.4%Datadog

DT+2.4%Dynatrace

FIG+2.4%Figma

WCLD+2.4%WisdomTree Cloud

SNOW+1.5%Snowflake

TEAM+0.1%Atlassian

NET+0.0%Cloudflare

AKAM-4.4%Akamai

RBLX-5.0%Roblox

MDB-12.8%MongoDB

15 names · median +2.4% · 11 up, 4 down.

Quantum — 1W %

NVDA+3.9%NVIDIA

GFS+2.4%GlobalFoundries

QTUM+1.5%Defiance Quantum

LAES+0.9%SEALSQ

AMZN+0.7%Amazon

MSFT+0.3%Microsoft

ARQQ+0.1%Arqit Quantum

GOOGL-0.1%Alphabet

WQTM-0.6%WisdomTree Quantum

IBM-1.3%IBM

IQMX-2.5%IQM

IONQ-3.8%IonQ

QNT-7.0%Quantinuum

RGTI-8.5%Rigetti

QUBT-8.7%Quantum Computing Inc

INFQ-9.4%Infleqtion

QBTS-9.4%D-Wave Quantum

XNDU-13.7%Xanadu

18 names · median -0.9% · 7 up, 11 down.

Biotech & pharma — 1W %

UTHR+13.9%United Therap.

SMMT+7.4%Summit Therap.

NBIX+3.5%Neurocrine

BBIO+2.6%BridgeBio

CRSP+2.2%CRISPR Therap.

ABVX+2.0%Abivax

CYTK+1.5%Cytokinetics

ASND+1.0%Ascendis Pharma

RVMD+0.8%Revolution Med.

PCVX+0.5%Vaxcyte

EXEL+0.4%Exelixis

ROIV-0.2%Roivant Sciences

XBI-0.4%SPDR S&P Biotech

ABBV-0.6%AbbVie

ONC-0.8%BeOne Medicines

JAZZ-1.0%Jazz Pharma

BNTX-1.6%BioNTech

GMAB-1.6%Genmab

RPRX-1.8%Royalty Pharma

IBB-2.1%iShares Biotech

IONS-2.2%Ionis

ARWR-2.6%Arrowhead

BMY-2.7%Bristol-Myers

AMGN-2.8%Amgen

SNY-2.9%Sanofi

MRK-3.0%Merck & Co.

PFE-3.0%Pfizer

NVS-3.1%Novartis

MDGL-3.3%Madrigal

BIIB-3.4%Biogen

LLY-3.4%Eli Lilly

HALO-3.5%Halozyme

NVO-3.8%Novo Nordisk

RHHBY-4.0%Roche

GILD-4.1%Gilead Sciences

VRTX-4.1%Vertex

ARGX-4.2%argenx

GSK-4.5%GSK

MRNA-4.5%Moderna

BMRN-5.1%BioMarin

TAK-5.3%Takeda

JNJ-5.6%Johnson & Johnson

INSM-5.7%Insmed

AZN-5.8%AstraZeneca

REGN-6.7%Regeneron

KRYS-6.8%Krystal Biotech

INCY-6.9%Incyte

AXSM-8.1%Axsome

ALNY-14.2%Alnylam

49 names · median -2.9% · 11 up, 38 down. Dropped: 068270.KS (non-US listing), 207940.KS (non-US listing), 4568.T (non-US listing).

Energy & power — 1W %

BWET+32.7%Breakwave Tanker

MPC+7.3%Marathon Petroleum

TLN+5.4%Talen Energy

VLO+4.9%Valero Energy

ENPH+3.3%Enphase Energy

DTE+2.5%DTE Energy

ETR+2.4%Entergy

PPL+2.4%PPL Corporation

XEL+2.3%Xcel Energy

XOM+2.1%ExxonMobil

XOP+1.9%S&P Oil & Gas E&P

WMB+1.8%Williams Companies

NVTS+1.6%Navitas Semiconductor

PEG+1.6%Public Service Enterprise

EVRG+1.4%Evergy

VDE+1.3%Vanguard Energy

XLE+1.3%Energy Select SPDR

CVX+1.1%Chevron

VST+1.1%Vistra

AEP+1.0%American Electric Power

D+1.0%Dominion Energy

KMI+1.0%Kinder Morgan

SO+1.0%Southern Company

IXC+0.8%iShares Global Energy

XLU+0.8%Utilities Select SPDR

BE+0.2%Bloom Energy

WEC+0.1%WEC Energy

TAN+0.0%Invesco Solar

ICLN-0.2%iShares Clean Energy

COP-0.4%ConocoPhillips

VRT-0.4%Vertiv

FSLR-1.7%First Solar

CEG-2.2%Constellation Energy

NLR-2.9%Uranium & Nuclear

NRG-5.1%NRG Energy

LEU-5.3%Centrus Energy

UUUU-5.5%Energy Fuels

OKLO-5.7%Oklo

SMR-8.0%NuScale Power

39 names · median +1.0% · 27 up, 12 down.

Week ahead — earnings

After close

—

US-listed companies with a market cap of $10.0B or more only — 4 reports this week. Coverage: the earnings-hopper timeline fetched at its widest floor ($10.0B+; 895 issuers swept). Implied move where the options market prices one ($100B+ names only): PEP ±2.71% event move (straddle ±3.74%, Fri Oct 9 expiry, quotes at the Fri Oct 2 close). No implied move for RPM, STZ, DAL (under $100B). Timing: Nasdaq's flag where the hopper or calendar carries one, otherwise the report timestamp in New York time.

Week ahead — dividends

2 ex-dividend dates in the covered window.

Ex-dividend dates

Ex-date	Ticker	Company	Mkt cap	Per share	Pays
Wed Oct 7	CMCSA	Comcast Corporation	$77.0B	$0.33	Oct 28
Thu Oct 8	INTU	Intuit Inc.	$75.6B	$1.38	Oct 16

Coverage: the events calendar's ex-dividend rows — the curated large-cap earnings universe, next 7 weekdays only; NOT every $10B+ dividend payer. Market caps from the earnings-hopper tape (the calendar's rows carry none).