Weekly report · Week 40 · Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2026
MacroView Weekly — 2026-W40
Week of Sep 28 – Oct 2, 2026 · Friday Oct 2 close · rebuilt Sun Oct 4, 2026
Summary
- Stocks went nowhere overall: the S&P 500 fund (SPY) ended the week -0.2% and the Nasdaq 100 +0.7%. Chip-equipment and optical-networking stocks led; health care (-2.6%) and financials (-2.5%) fell most.
- Bonds sold off again: the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.29% on Sep 30, its highest reading in a year, and the high-yield spread jumped 0.44 points in a week to 3.24% (latest reading Oct 1).
- Gold fell 3.7% to $4,162, 21.7% below its Jan 2026 peak, as the inflation-adjusted 10-year yield climbed to 2.88%.
- Hiring stalled: employers added 29 thousand jobs in September and unemployment was 4.2%; stocks rose on the news on Friday (S&P 500 fund +0.7%).
- Forward call: market stress is low (18.6 out of 100, a level where investors favour riskier assets), so the backdrop stays supportive — unless the high-yield spread widens beyond its latest 3.24% (already its widest since Mar 30) while the 10-year yield holds at or above 5.24%.
Economy & interest rates
Over the past week (Fri Sep 25 to Fri Oct 2) stocks were flat while bonds and gold fell, and the latest rate readings show borrowing costs still rising — the main pressure on stock prices right now.
Long-dated Treasuries (TLT) lost 2.3% and high-yield bonds (HYG) 1.2%, while the dollar gained 1.0%. The economic backdrop reads as the late stage of the business cycle (early / mid / late / contraction): inflation is 3.71% a year (August reading) and the Fed funds rate is 3.88%, 0.25 points higher than a month earlier. Recent economic data has improved over three months — the Philadelphia Fed factory survey rose 30 points to 37.8 and jobless claims fell — with credit spreads the one input pointing the other way.
The 10-year yield read 5.24% on Oct 1, after 5.29% on Sep 30 — the highest in the past year. The 2-year slipped to 4.78%, so the gap between the two widened to 0.46 points. The inflation rate bond prices imply barely moved (2.36%), so the rise is in inflation-adjusted yields, not inflation fears. The high-yield spread rose 0.44 points in a week to 3.24%, its widest since Mar 30 (3.46% then).
| Measure | Latest | Date | 1 week | 1 month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield | 5.24% | Oct 1 | +0.06 | +0.45 |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 4.78% | Oct 1 | -0.09 | +0.39 |
| Gap between 10-year and 2-year yields | 0.46 pts | Oct 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 |
| High-yield bond spread | 3.24% | Oct 1 | +0.44 | +0.59 |
| Investment-grade bond spread | 0.86% | Oct 1 | +0.07 | +0.05 |
| Inflation rate bond prices imply (10-year) | 2.36% | Oct 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 |
| Fed funds rate | 3.88% | Oct 1 | +0.00 | +0.25 |
Official US data (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) lags by a day or more: the 10-year and 2-year yields and both spreads are Thursday Oct 1 readings, so their 1-week change runs Thursday to Thursday. A credit spread is the extra yield investors demand to hold company bonds instead of Treasuries; high-yield means lower-rated companies.
A 10-year Treasury yield above this week's high of 5.29% would mean the bond sell-off is still running and keep pressure on stock valuations; a fall back toward last Thursday's 5.18% would ease it.
Volatility & market stress
The market stress level (0–100, higher = more fear) and the VIX — the market's gauge of expected S&P 500 swings over the next 30 days — as of Friday's close, with their changes over the past week; they show whether the bond sell-off has spread into stocks. So far it has not.
Built from the VIX family, bond, oil and gold volatility, each ranked against its own past year.
- 10.761 day
- 12.069 days
- 15.3130 days
- 18.013 months
- 20.156 months
- 21.761 year
Longer-term fear priced above near-term fear (30-day VIX / 3-month = 0.85) is the normal, calm shape.
At 18.6 the stress level sits in its lowest band. The VIX (15.31) is higher than only 10.5% of its readings over the past year, and it sits 5.08 points above the S&P 500's actual swings over the past 20 days (10.23) — investors are paying only a modest premium for protection. The exception is bonds: the bond-market volatility index (MOVE) rose 11.8% this week to 107.29, higher than 87% of its past-year readings.
Level shown under each change is Friday Oct 2's close.
A stress level of 25 or more (out of the low band) or near-term fear rising above longer-term fear (the 30-day VIX above its 3-month counterpart, a ratio above 1) would show the bond-market strain spreading into stocks.
Sectors & market leadership
How the 11 S&P 500 sectors did over the past week, with 1-day, 1-month and 3-month changes beside it; it shows which parts of the market are carrying the index.
Only three sectors rose: technology (+1.8%), energy (+1.3%) and utilities (+0.8%). Health care, financials and communication services each lost more than 2%. Over three months the split is sharper: technology +10.6%, energy +18.0%, utilities -13.0%.
| Fund | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK Technology | +1.0% | +1.8% | +8.8% | +10.6% |
| XLE Energy | +0.2% | +1.3% | -3.5% | +18.0% |
| XLU Utilities | +0.4% | +0.8% | -6.7% | -13.0% |
| XLI Industrials | +0.8% | -0.3% | -1.6% | -7.6% |
| XLY Consumer discretionary | +1.1% | -0.5% | -4.2% | -6.0% |
| XLRE Real estate | +0.3% | -1.8% | -6.7% | -8.7% |
| XLB Materials | +0.7% | -1.9% | -7.7% | -6.1% |
| XLP Consumer staples | +0.2% | -1.9% | -5.8% | -5.2% |
| XLC Communication services | +0.3% | -2.3% | -1.9% | +0.7% |
| XLF Financials | +0.1% | -2.5% | -7.2% | -3.8% |
| XLV Health care | +0.0% | -2.6% | -3.9% | +1.5% |
The largest US tech stocks still lead: the Magnificent Seven gained 4.7% over the past month against 0.6% for the S&P 500 (+4.1 points), and +5.9 points over three months — though they still trail the index this year (-3.4 points). This week they split: NVIDIA +3.9%, Meta Platforms -3.1%, the typical (median) one -0.12%.
Defensive vs. growth stocks on Friday: defensive blue-chip stocks rose a typical 0.1% while growth stocks (the Magnificent Seven and chipmakers together) rose 1.9% — a gap of 1.8 percentage points in favour of riskier stocks. One day, so read it as colour, not a trend.
If the Magnificent Seven fall behind the S&P 500 over a full month, the index loses the few large stocks carrying it — with most sectors already down this week, that would leave little support.
Energy, gold & safe havens
Oil, energy stocks, gold and other safe-haven assets over the past week and the past three months; they show how investors are hedging inflation and rising interest rates.
WTI crude ended at $91.11 a barrel, -1.4% on the week but still +58.7% this year. Refiners Marathon Petroleum (+7.3%) and Phillips 66 (+3.5%) and Brazil's Petrobras (+6.3%) led energy stocks, while oil-service companies and European producers fell.
| Ticker | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month |
|---|---|---|---|
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | +0.5% | +7.3% | +9.1% |
| PBR Petrobras | +3.2% | +6.3% | +3.8% |
| PSX Phillips 66 | +0.1% | +3.5% | +3.3% |
| ENPH Enphase Energy | +2.0% | +3.3% | -5.8% |
| IMO Imperial Oil | +0.9% | +2.3% | -6.9% |
| CNQ Canadian Natural | +1.4% | +2.2% | -6.5% |
| PLUG Plug Power | +0.5% | -4.0% | -9.1% |
| YPF YPF | +0.8% | -4.7% | -7.9% |
| RUN Sunrun | +0.9% | -4.9% | -14.0% |
| SLB SLB (Schlumberger) | +0.2% | -5.4% | -16.2% |
| REPYY Repsol | -2.5% | -5.7% | +1.0% |
| TTE TotalEnergies | -0.1% | -7.2% | -6.5% |
From 33 energy producers, refiners, pipelines and clean-energy companies, funds excluded; some are listed outside the US.
Gold fell 3.7% to $4,162 an ounce, 21.7% below its Jan 29, 2026 peak of $5,318. The usual culprits explain it: the inflation-adjusted 10-year yield rose 0.43 points over 20 trading days to 2.88% (Oct 1), and the trade-weighted dollar gained 1.7%. Over 90 days gold returned +0.9% where rates and the dollar alone imply -2.8% — about 3.7 points of buying that interest rates and the dollar don't explain, often read as central-bank demand.
Over the three months since Jul 2 the usual hedges did little: long Treasuries -8.3%, gold +0.5% and the dollar +1.9%, against +3.6% for the S&P 500 fund.
Gold climbing back above last Friday's $4,321 settle while real yields stay high would signal that buyers are returning regardless of rates — the opposite of this week's rate-driven sell-off.
Semiconductors & investment themes
The typical (median) stock's move over the past week in eight themed groups of US-listed stocks, plus the chip stocks that moved most; it shows where investors are adding or cutting risk below the index level.
Optical and networking stocks had the best week: the typical one rose 6.4% and 19 of 20 gained, led by VIAV (+15.8%). Cybersecurity followed (+3.8%). AI-infrastructure stocks (-3.2%) and biotech (-3.0%) fell, and the typical AI-infrastructure stock is 38% below its 52-week high.
| Group (stocks) | Typical 1-week move | Up / down | Best / worst | Typical gap to 52-week high | Above 200-day average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Optical & networking (20) | +6.4% | 19 / 1 | VIAV +15.8% ERIC -2.5% | -22.6% | 17 of 20 |
| Cybersecurity (14) | +3.8% | 12 / 2 | S +12.0% SAIL -1.0% | -9.6% | 12 of 14 |
| Software & developer tools (14) | +2.4% | 11 / 3 | FROG +7.1% MDB -12.8% | -10.9% | 11 of 14 |
| Energy & power (30) | +1.1% | 21 / 9 | MPC +7.3% SMR -8.0% | -18.0% | 6 of 30 |
| Magnificent Seven (7) | -0.1% | 3 / 4 | NVDA +3.9% META -3.1% | -6.6% | 6 of 7 |
| Quantum computing (16) | -1.9% | 6 / 10 | NVDA +3.9% XNDU -13.7% | -46.3% | 6 of 16 |
| Biotech & pharma (47) | -3.0% | 11 / 36 | UTHR +13.9% ALNY -14.2% | -14.3% | 27 of 47 |
| AI infrastructure (24) | -3.2% | 7 / 17 | ORCL +3.8% GDS -15.9% | -37.9% | 10 of 24 |
Computed from each stock's daily closes. Only US-listed stocks trading in dollars with a Friday Oct 2 close; funds and foreign listings left out (AI infrastructure: 018260.KS, 300442.SZ, DTCR, GMG.AX, IOS.DE, MRL.MC, NXT.AX, SKYY; Optical & networking: FIVG, XTL; Cybersecurity: CIBR, HACK; Software & developer tools: WCLD; Quantum computing: QTUM, WQTM; Energy & power: BWET, ICLN, IXC, NLR, TAN, VDE, XLE, XLU, XOP; Biotech & pharma: 068270.KS, 207940.KS, 4568.T, IBB, XBI). The Magnificent Seven are Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla only. A stock can sit in more than one group.
Among chipmakers, 20 of the 24 that crossed the 6% line this week rose — mostly makers of chip-making equipment and test gear (FormFactor, Onto, Teradyne, Applied Materials, Lam, KLA). The four decliners were AI-chip maker Cerebras, Qualcomm, and storage makers Western Digital and Seagate. The chip fund SMH rose 4.0% to $630.60, 6.1% below its 52-week high.
Semiconductor stocks, Friday's move (1 day): the typical chip stock rose 2.32% and the two big chip funds +2.18% (SOXX) and +2.07% (SMH), while Western Digital (-10.22%) and Seagate (-10.21%) fell sharply. One day only — not a weekly figure.
The chip rally fails if the chip fund SMH falls back below its 50-day average of $569.85 (Friday close $630.60).
Biggest movers & stock screens
The large US companies ($10B+) that moved most over the past week, and stock screens — lists of stocks meeting a rule, such as a new 52-week low — as of Friday Oct 2; they show how broad or narrow the week's moves were.
120 of 960 companies worth $10B or more moved 6% or more either way this week — 61 up and 59 down, an even split under a flat index. Fair Isaac (FICO) lost 23.4%; cruise lines and optical-networking makers led the gains.
| Ticker | Company | Market value | 1 week | Friday (1 day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WDC | Western Digital | $150B | -9.1% | -10.2% |
| NKE | Nike | $50.2B | -5.3% | -3.6% |
| STX | Seagate Technology | $193B | -7.4% | -10.2% |
| VIAV | Viavi Solutions | $11.6B | +15.8% | +5.2% |
| TER | Teradyne | $70.2B | +12.7% | +8.0% |
| ON | ON Semiconductor | $33.0B | +10.0% | +6.0% |
| FICO | Fair Isaac | $14.3B | -23.4% | -0.1% |
| HPE | Hewlett Packard Enterprise Comp | $92.0B | +10.2% | +7.4% |
| NTAP | NetApp | $44.4B | +12.5% | +5.2% |
Ranked from 960 US-listed companies worth $10B or more by how unusual their trading volume, price momentum and breakouts were. One preferred-share listing without a market value is left out.
Breakouts and breakdowns: 368 stocks fired two or more technical signals — such as crossing their 50- or 150-day average, an RSI extreme or an unusually heavy trading day — in the past five sessions, out of 2,005 checked; 285 had at least one upward signal and 293 at least one downward (a stock can have both). Candle patterns were read for 1,080 of 1,265 candidates.
Stretched stocks: RSI is a 0–100 gauge of recent gains vs. losses — below 30 counts as oversold, above 70 as overbought. 214 stocks sit at 35 or below and only 57 at 65 or above, out of 2,005 checked; the most oversold are mortgage-bond investors Annaly (RSI 13.2) and AGNC (15.3).
New 52-week lows: 46 of 336 companies worth $20B or more hit a 52-week low in the past 45 days, 34 of them this week alone (Sep 28 – Oct 2) — including Netflix, Home Depot, PepsiCo, McDonald's, Nike and NextEra Energy. Damage is spreading among consumer, utility and defense stocks even with the index 0.8% from its high.
If the count of new 52-week lows keeps rising next week while the index holds near its high, fewer stocks are carrying the market and the index becomes more fragile; a shrinking list would say the selling is over.
Earnings recap
How the most recent reports on our watchlist of about 35 large US companies compared with analyst forecasts, and how the shares reacted the next day; this was a quiet week, with Micron the only watchlist company to report.
Micron reported after the close on Wed Sep 30: earnings of $33.19 a share against $31.41 expected, a 5.7% beat, and the shares rose 3.0% the next day. Across the watchlist's latest quarters, 31 companies beat forecasts and 4 missed. Beats have not guaranteed gains: Broadcom and Oracle beat and still fell the next day.
| Ticker | Company | Reported | EPS vs forecast | Beat / miss | Next-day move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Micron Technology | Wed Sep 30, after close | $33.19 vs $31.41 | +5.7% | +3.0% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | Thu Sep 24, after close | $6.60 vs $6.48 | +1.9% | +2.9% |
| ORCL | Oracle | Thu Sep 10, after close | $1.63 vs $1.39 | +17.3% | -1.7% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Wed Sep 2, after close | $3.03 vs $2.83 | +7.1% | -2.7% |
Watchlist of about 35 widely held US large companies; the four most recent reports are shown.
The big banks report on Oct 13–14 and open the new season; a run of misses there would break the 31-of-35 beat record that has supported prices.
The week's main stories
The news behind the week's biggest moves, Sep 28 – Oct 2, with links to the original reporting; the figures here come from MacroView's own data, not from the articles.
- Bond sell-off. The 10-year yield touched 5.29% on Sep 30 and swings in the bond market rattled stock markets worldwide midweek, while optimism about AI held up US tech. AP News, Oct 1
- Hiring stalls. The September jobs report showed just 29 thousand new jobs and unemployment at 4.2%; stocks still rose on Friday, with headlines describing Wall Street as welcoming the weak report.
- Storage stocks slump. Western Digital and Seagate each fell about 10% on Friday (-9.1% and -7.4% on the week). MarketWatch, Oct 2
- Fair Isaac keeps sliding. FICO fell 23.4% this week and 39.9% over the past month; the selling started in early September, when the US housing-finance regulator opened mortgage lending to the rival VantageScore. TIKR · Trefis, Sep 30
- Chip-equipment rally. Applied Materials (+11.3%), Lam Research (+10.2%) and KLA (+10.1%) led a broad gain in chip-making equipment, after Micron's earnings beat on Sep 30.
History: similar past markets
Past times since October 2017 when the market looked like this week — stocks near their high, long-term bonds falling fast, and little fear priced in — and how the S&P 500 did over the next one and three months; it tests whether calm stocks can ignore a bond sell-off.
Today the S&P 500 fund is 0.8% below its 52-week high, long Treasuries are down 5.1% over 21 trading days and the VIX is 15.31. That combination occurred in 10 earlier episodes. A month later the S&P 500 was up in 7 of 10 (typical move +1.2%); three months later in only 5 of 10 (typical +0.9%). Across all days since Oct 2017 the baseline was +1.9% after one month (69% of the time up) and +4.7% after three (76% up). Based on 10 past cases — too few to lean on, but they point to weaker-than-usual returns over the following three months.
| Start | VIX | Treasuries, past month | S&P, next month | S&P, next 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2018 | 14.8 | -5.7% | -5.0% | -10.3% |
| Sep 13, 2019 | 13.7 | -6.1% | -1.3% | +5.8% |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 13.1 | -5.1% | +1.6% | +9.3% |
| Oct 20, 2021 | 15.5 | -5.3% | +3.8% | -0.9% |
| Jan 3, 2022 | 16.6 | -5.3% | -4.3% | -4.1% |
| Aug 3, 2023 | 15.9 | -5.9% | +0.5% | -5.5% |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 14.1 | -5.4% | +4.8% | +5.2% |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 15.8 | -5.4% | +1.2% | +8.6% |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 14.0 | -5.1% | +1.2% | +2.7% |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 15.9 | -5.0% | +1.7% | -5.4% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 16.1 | -5.1% | n/a | n/a |
A match needs all three on the same day: the S&P 500 fund (SPY) within 3% of its 52-week closing high, the long-Treasury fund (TLT) down 5% or more over 21 trading days, and the VIX below 17. Days within 21 sessions of a previous match count as the same episode. 1 month = 21 trading days, 3 months = 63. The latest episode began Sep 28, 2026, so it has no result yet. Returns are price only.
The comparison stops applying if the S&P 500 fund (SPY) closes more than 3% below its 52-week high — under $752.67 — or the VIX rises to 17 or above.
Scenarios
Three ways the coming weeks could unfold, each as if → then → what to watch; these are conditional outcomes built from this week's data, not forecasts, and carry no probabilities.
Rates ease
- If
- The 10-year yield slips back toward last Thursday's 5.18% and the high-yield spread narrows from 3.24%.
- Then
- Pressure on valuations eases and gains could broaden beyond chips and optical networking to the lagging sectors.
- Watch
- September inflation (CPI) on Oct 14 and the big-bank results on Oct 13–14.
Calm stocks, nervous bonds
- If
- The 10-year yield holds between 5.17% (Sep 25) and 5.29% (Sep 30) and the stress level stays below 25.
- Then
- The index stays range-bound while money keeps rotating between themes; new 52-week lows keep piling up under the surface.
- Watch
- The high-yield spread and the count of new 52-week lows.
Credit cracks
- If
- The high-yield spread pushes past its March high of 3.46% while the 10-year stays above 5.29%.
- Then
- Strain moves from bonds into stocks: the stress level leaves its low band and near-term fear overtakes longer-term fear.
- Watch
- Stress level at 25 or more; the 30-day VIX above its 3-month counterpart.
Week ahead
Scheduled earnings, dividends and economic releases from Mon Oct 5 to Wed Oct 14; the big banks open the new reporting season on Oct 13–14 and September inflation lands on Oct 14.
Tue Oct 62
Before market open
After market close
Thu Oct 81
Before market open
After market close
—
Fri Oct 91
Before market open
After market close
—
Tue Oct 137
Before market open
After market close
Wed Oct 147
Before market open
After market close
—
Companies reporting earnings, by day and time: US-listed, market value $10.0B or more — 18 reports in all. ±% is the share-price move options traders expect around the report, where options data is available; the bar compares it with the week's largest. No company worth $10B or more reports on Mon Oct 5, Wed Oct 7, Mon Oct 12.
For the largest companies, options traders price a smaller move than usual for most: 8 of 11 expect less than their past-year average, led by the banks. JP Morgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson and ASML are the exceptions, where options price more than the past-year average.
| Ticker | Company | Date | Options expect | Past reports, 1-year average | Past reports, 5-year average (count) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | Pepsico | Thu Oct 8 | ±2.7% | ±3.7% | ±2.9% (19) |
| JPM | JP Morgan Chase & Co. | Tue Oct 13 | ±2.7% | ±2.4% | ±2.9% (20) |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | Tue Oct 13 | ±1.9% | ±0.9% | ±1.9% (20) |
| UNH | UnitedHealth | Tue Oct 13 | ±6.6% | ±7.1% | ±5.6% (20) |
| GS | Goldman Sachs | Tue Oct 13 | ±3.1% | ±4.4% | ±3.0% (20) |
| WFC | Wells Fargo | Tue Oct 13 | ±3.5% | ±5.0% | ±3.7% (20) |
| C | Citigroup | Tue Oct 13 | ±2.9% | ±3.8% | ±3.3% (19) |
| ASML | ASML | Wed Oct 14 | ±3.2% | ±2.4% | ±2.4% (4) |
| BAC | Bank of America | Wed Oct 14 | ±3.0% | ±3.0% | ±2.6% (20) |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | Wed Oct 14 | ±2.9% | ±3.9% | ±3.3% (20) |
| BLK | BlackRock | Wed Oct 14 | ±4.2% | ±4.7% | ±4.5% (8) |
| PGR | Progressive | Wed Oct 14 | unavailable | ±5.0% | ±3.6% (20) |
All 12 report before the market opens. Options-implied move priced at Friday Oct 2's close. Past averages ignore direction (a −3% and a +3% day both count as 3%). Where options data is missing it says unavailable rather than estimating.
| Ex-dividend date | Ticker | Company | Market cap | Dividend per share | Pay date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 7 | CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | $0.33 | Oct 28 | |
| Thu Oct 8 | INTU | Intuit Inc. | $1.38 | Oct 16 |
Ex-dividend date: own the shares before this day to receive the dividend. Coverage: a selected list of large US companies, next 7 weekdays — not every $10B+ company. Intuit's market value is not in the calendar data.
| Date | Time | Release | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 14 | 08:30 ET | Consumer prices (CPI), September 2026 | |
| Wed Oct 28 | 14:00 ET | Federal Reserve interest-rate decision (FOMC) | Later this month |
From the economic calendar; times are US Eastern.