Weekly report · Week 39 · Sep 21 – 25, 2026
MacroView Weekly — 2026-W39
Week of Sep 21–25, 2026: semis and Meta lift the Nasdaq as the 10-year Treasury climbs to 5.18%, crude drops 8% and rate volatility jumps.
Summary
- Growth rose while bonds fell: QQQ +3.2% and SPY +1.3% while TLT fell 2.4%, with the 10Y at 5.18% (+24 bp, FRED Thu Sep 24).
- Semis did the lifting: 25 of 28 names rose (median +6.6%), alongside META +12.9%. Only 4 of 11 sectors finished up.
- Crude fell hard (WTI down 7.9%), taking energy and refiners down. Gold fell 2.3% but keeps a 7.7 pp unexplained bid over 90 days.
- Rate vol, not equity vol, is where the stress shows: MOVE +19.0% against VIX 14.87 in contango, and 98 $10B+ names sit under RSI 30, led by utilities and REITs.
- Forward call: the regime is Risk-On (stress 15.2, VIX/VIX3M 0.829) with mega-cap leadership intact. The one thing that would change it is the rate shock reaching credit or equity vol: HY OAS through 3% (now 2.80%) or VIX/VIX3M through 1.0.
Macro regime & cycle
Stocks and bonds split: QQQ +3.2% and SPY +1.3%, while TLT fell 2.4% and the 10Y printed 5.18% on Thu Sep 24, +24 bp on the week. The 2Y rose almost as fast (4.87%, +20 bp), so 2s10s only nudged up to +0.31 pp, and crude fell 7.9%. The cycle read contradicts itself: the phase model says Late cycle, while the level-based clock says recovery, heading expansion, and this week's tape favoured XLK over the late-cycle leaders (XLE, XLB, XLV, XLP, XLU). Credit is still tight, with HY OAS at 2.80% (+10 bp) and IG at 0.79% on Sep 24, against a 2.85% real yield and a 2.34% breakeven.
Phase model inputs: CPI 3.71% (Aug), 2s10s +0.31 pp, HY OAS 2.80%, fed funds 3.88%. Clock inputs: Philly Fed 37.8 (Sep), drift “improving” (score 2). FRED series last printed Thu Sep 24; breakeven Fri Sep 25.
HY OAS widening through 3% while the 10Y holds above 5% would mean the rate shock has reached credit. A 2Y falling faster than the 10Y would re-steepen the curve for dovish reasons, and the late-cycle label would then start to fit the tape.
Volatility
Equity vol sits near its one-year floor: VIX 14.87 (1-year percentile 8) in steep contango, VIX/VIX3M 0.829. Implied still runs 4.13 pts over 20-day realized (14.87 against 10.74), so the variance risk premium is positive. The stress is in rates instead: MOVE rose 19.0% to 96 and bond-ETF vol (VXTLT) 26.1%. Oil vol (OVX 55.09) sits at the 88th percentile of five years.
- 12.769D
- 14.8730D
- 17.933M
- 20.016M
- 21.601Y
Sub line: level · percentile of the last year (0 = lowest, 100 = highest).
The VIX/VIX3M ratio rising through 1.0 (now 0.829) would flip the term structure to backwardation and take the stress score out of Risk-On. The usual trigger is MOVE pushing past its 1-year high of 115.02.
Sectors & rotation
Only 4 of 11 sector ETFs rose: Technology led (+3.5%) and the rate-sensitive end came last, with Utilities down 3.9%, Energy 3.5% and Real Estate 2.3%. Mega-cap leadership holds on 1M/3M: the Mag-7 basket is +6.5% against SPY +0.7% over 1M and +15.0% against +5.8% over 3M (verdict “leaders-leading”). It still trails SPY YTD by 3.4 pp. Small caps did not join in (IWM -0.7% 1W, -5.7% 1M).
| Sector | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | 3M % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK Technology | +0.8% | +3.5% | +7.3% | +8.4% |
| XLC Communication Svcs | -0.9% | +1.9% | +0.3% | +6.4% |
| XLV Health Care | +0.5% | +1.4% | -1.6% | +6.5% |
| XLI Industrials | +0.9% | +0.4% | -5.5% | -5.9% |
| XLB Materials | +0.2% | -0.4% | -7.2% | -3.5% |
| XLY Consumer Disc. | +0.2% | -0.4% | -5.6% | -3.3% |
| XLP Consumer Staples | +0.4% | -0.9% | -4.9% | -3.1% |
| XLF Financials | +0.6% | -1.8% | -5.9% | +2.4% |
| XLRE Real Estate | -0.2% | -2.3% | -7.8% | -8.1% |
| XLE Energy | -0.9% | -3.5% | -0.6% | +15.2% |
| XLU Utilities | +0.4% | -3.9% | -9.2% | -14.5% |
Utilities and staples turning up with the 10Y rolling over would mean money rotating into bond proxies, not just repricing them. A 1M Mag-7 lead that shrinks below zero would end the “leaders-leading” verdict.
Energy, gold & hedges
WTI fell 7.9% to $92.41, the week's largest cross-asset move, though it is still up 33.5% over 3M; FSLR, MPC, ENPH, PSX were the energy segment's weakest names. Gold fell 2.3% to $4,321.2, 18.7% below its Jan 29 peak of $5,318. It still sits 7.7 pp above what real yields and the broad dollar imply over 90 days (+5.5% actual against -2.2% implied), a proxy for an unexplained bid rather than a measurement. No hedge beat stocks over the quarter: rebased 3M, SPY +6.1%, GLD +5.3%, UUP +0.6%, TLT -8.2%.
| Name | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNG US Natural Gas | -3.6% | +6.9% | +6.9% |
| REPYY Repsol | -2.2% | +2.9% | +12.0% |
| GLPEY Galp Energia | -1.7% | +2.7% | +4.9% |
| SHEL Shell | +0.2% | +1.3% | +5.1% |
| 2222.SR Saudi Aramco | +0.5% | +0.9% | -1.9% |
| EC Ecopetrol | +1.3% | -5.7% | +0.4% |
| PSX Phillips 66 | -0.0% | -6.4% | +5.6% |
| ENPH Enphase Energy | -1.3% | -6.5% | -15.7% |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum | +0.7% | -7.4% | +8.6% |
| FSLR First Solar | +3.2% | -9.3% | -13.7% |
Energy heatmap segment, Fri Sep 25 settled closes.
The gold residual collapsing toward zero while real yields keep rising would mean the unexplained bid is fading. The model's 60-day correlation with real yields is -0.26, well short of the −1 textbook link. On crude, OVX at the 88th 5-year percentile says the options market still prices large swings in either direction.
Semiconductors & themes
Semis carried the Nasdaq: 25 of 28 names rose, median +6.6%, with SOXX +7.4% and SMH +5.9%. ALAB (+20.2%), RMBS (+20.0%), QCOM and INTC led, while SNDK, AVGO and CAMT were the only decliners. Inside the Mag 7, META (+12.9%) and MSFT (+4.5%) did the work and GOOGL and AMZN slipped. Energy (-3.2%) and AI-infra hosts (-1.6%, ORCL -7.1%) had the weakest theme medians.
Window: 1W close-to-close from each card's daily history. Rows whose last close was not Fri Sep 25 were dropped, and the payload does not say why. Dropped: ai infra: 018260.KS (last close 2026-09-22), 300442.SZ (last close 2026-09-23), GMG.AX (last close 2026-09-24), NXT.AX (last close 2026-09-24); optics: FIVG (last close 2026-07-17); biotech: 068270.KS (last close 2026-09-22), 207940.KS (last close 2026-09-22), 4568.T (last close 2026-09-24). Friday's semis lane in get_risk_rotation is a separate 1D read (median +1.27%).
Micron's report on Wed Sep 30 is the week's test of the memory leg. A miss against the semis median would put the rally's breadth, 25 of 28 up, under question.
Movers & screens
Among $20B+ names moving 6% or more, MRNA had the biggest gain (+29.1%) on its cancer-vaccine run, and META's +12.9% came mostly on Monday. Below that floor, GEN ($12.9B) fell 25.5% after its GoDaddy approach. Utilities and REITs lead the oversold tail (DTE 17, O 17, TXRH 17, CMS 20, ROL 20, GEN 21), consistent with the rate move. Of the $20B+ names on 52-week lows, 30 set that low this week, the largest being HD, TMUS, PEP, MCD.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt cap | Hot score | Volume heat | 1W % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | Akamai Technologies, Inc. | $16.4B | 11.5 | 8.9× | +9.0% |
| GEN | Gen Digital Inc. | $12.9B | 10.0 | 4.7× | -25.5% |
| CRDO | Credo Technology Group Holding | $39.7B | 6.9 | 1.7× | +19.9% |
| TWLO | Twilio Inc. | $42.4B | 6.8 | 1.9× | +13.1% |
| ZS | Zscaler, Inc. | $31.5B | 6.5 | 2.3× | -2.2% |
| CM | Canadian Imperial Bank of Comme | $103B | 6.1 | 4.4× | -1.1% |
Hot stocks: top 6 of 10 served (universe 976 names).
| Screen | Rows | Reading | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI extremes | 226 | 98 under 30 · 17 over 70 | 2,029 of 2,029 US names ≥ $10B, settled close Fri Sep 25 |
| Breakouts, whole week (5 sessions) | 513 | 284 with an up signal · 385 with a down signal | 2,029 names ≥ $10B; candle patterns read for 600 of 1,272 candidates |
| Breakouts, Fri Sep 25 close only | 163 | 105 with an up signal · 63 with a down signal | 2,029 names ≥ $10B; candle patterns read for 600 of 1,272 candidates |
| 52-week lows (45-day window) | 38 | 30 set their low Sep 21–25 | 336 of 337 curated names ≥ $20B |
A drop in the count of names under RSI 30 (now 98) while the 10Y holds would mean the bond-proxy selling is exhausted. A rise with the 10Y falling would mean something other than rates is driving it.
Earnings recap
Costco was the only reporter this week in the 35-name recap universe: EPS beat by 1.85% (6.60 against 6.48) and the stock rose 2.9% the next day. A headline in the news dataset attributes about $0.15 a share of that to a one-time tariff refund (Costco Beat on Earnings. About $0.15 a Share of It Was a One-Time Tariff Refund.). Season to date the watchlist shows 31 beats and 4 misses, but beats have not guaranteed gains: ORCL and AVGO both beat and fell the next day.
| Ticker | Reported | EPS | Estimate | Surprise | Next-day % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 2026-09-24 | 6.60 | 6.48 | +1.9% | +2.9% |
| ORCL | 2026-09-10 | 1.63 | 1.39 | +17.3% | -1.7% |
| AVGO | 2026-09-02 | 3.03 | 2.83 | +7.1% | -2.7% |
| NVDA | 2026-08-26 | 2.22 | 2.09 | +6.2% | +8.7% |
| CRM | 2026-08-26 | 4.95 | 2.35 | +110.6% | +22.6% |
| WMT | 2026-08-20 | 0.81 | 0.73 | +11.0% | -0.1% |
Six most recent reporters in the earnings-recap watchlist (curated large caps, not every $10B+ name).
Micron (Sep 30) and Nike and Accenture (Oct 1) are next. A beat followed by a next-day drop at MU would repeat the ORCL and AVGO pattern: expectations running ahead of results.
News themes
- Bond yields up, stocks mostly unmoved. Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should care (Yahoo Finance); How S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq Futures Are Moving Amid Rising Bond Yields, Trump-Xi Summit (Stocktwits).
- Oil cools on Iran diplomacy. US Stock Market Today: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, S&P 500 In Green As Cooler Oil Soothes Wall Street (NDTV Profit); Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Gain as Trump Touts 'Good Meeting' With Iran: Analyst Says BTC 'Sitting' Above Strong Support (webull.com).
- Meta's AI re-rating. Meta stock soars on price-target increase, Muse AI downloads (Yahoo Finance). Monday's jump carried the week; Connect ran from Sep 23.
- AI buildout friction. Stock Market Today, Sept. 24: Oracle Stock Dips As it Issues Force Majeure Notice on Project Jupiter Data Center (Yahoo Finance).
- Single-name shocks. Moderna hits a 52-week high on melanoma-vaccine data (FX Leaders); Gen Digital wants to buy GoDaddy. So why did its own stock crash? (Yahoo Finance).
Headlines are from the news dataset (clustered, up to 24h stale) plus three web searches for the stories behind the biggest moves. Every figure on this page comes from the datasets, not from these articles.
A setback in the US–Iran talks would put the oil premium back and give the inflation side of the rates story fresh fuel.
Historical lookbacks
Today stacks three conditions: SPY within 2% of its 52-week high (0.6% off), VIX under 16 (14.87) and TLT down 5% or more over 3M (−8.2%). Since 2017 that triple has shown up in 12 weeks across 6 past episodes plus this one, and SPY's forward 3M median was -2.1% against a +4.8% baseline. That rests on n = 10 overlapping readings, and the 2018-10-05 episode alone returned -10.3% over the next 3M, so it cannot carry a call. Drop the VIX leg (n = 28) and the read flips to +6.0%, above baseline.
| Condition (weekly closes) | Weeks | Episodes | n (3M) | Fwd 1M median | 1M up | Fwd 3M median | 3M up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY within 2% of 52w high AND VIX < 16 AND TLT 3M <= -5% | 12 | 7 | 10 | -0.2% | 50% | -2.1% | 40% |
| SPY within 2% of 52w high AND VIX < 16 | 149 | 19 | 139 | +1.7% | 70% | +2.7% | 61% |
| TLT 3M <= -8% | 50 | 7 | 49 | +1.4% | 67% | +5.4% | 61% |
| SPY within 2% of high AND TLT 3M <= -5% | 30 | 10 | 28 | +1.4% | 71% | +6.0% | 79% |
| Unconditional baseline (every week since 2017-09-29) | 465 | — | 457 | +1.9% | 70% | +4.8% | 75% |
SPY forward returns (price, no dividends) from the last close of each ISO week, Sep 2017 – Sep 2026 (the first year of the 10-year series seeds the 52-week high). 52-week high = the highest close of the prior 252 sessions. Episodes = runs of matches separated by more than four weeks, including the current one. Past episode starts (SPY fwd 3M): 2018-10-05 (-10.3%), 2019-11-08 (+9.1%), 2023-07-07 (-2.9%), 2023-09-01 (+2.1%), 2024-03-22 (+4.5%), 2024-11-22 (-1.4%). Forward windows overlap within an episode, so the effective sample is closer to the episode count than to n.
One more episode would move the triple condition's median materially, which is the point of stating its n. A bond selloff in a low-VIX tape has not, on its own, been a reliable sell signal in this sample.
Scenarios
These are three conditional paths from here, with no probabilities attached. Each names the data that would confirm it.
Rates plateau, growth keeps leading
- If
- The 10Y stalls near 5.18% and MOVE eases back from 96.
- Then
- Contango and a positive VRP stay intact, and semis and the Mag 7 keep their 1M/3M lead over SPY.
- Watch
- The MU print Sep 30, the SOXX 1W sign, and the Mag-7 relative line (1M now +5.8 pp).
Narrow grind
- If
- Yields drift higher slowly and credit stays tight (HY OAS near 2.8%).
- Then
- The index holds near highs on mega-cap weight while bond proxies and small caps keep lagging. The count of names under RSI 30 stays high.
- Watch
- IWM against SPY, the utilities and REIT oversold tail (98 names under RSI 30), and 2s10s (+0.31 pp).
Rate shock reaches equities
- If
- The 10Y keeps rising, MOVE breaks its 1-year high and HY OAS widens.
- Then
- The VIX curve flattens toward backwardation, the stress score leaves Risk-On, and the most extended semis give back first.
- Watch
- VIX/VIX3M above 1.0 (now 0.829), HY OAS above 3%, and the Oct 2 payrolls report.
Payrolls on Oct 2 is the one scheduled macro print in the calendar this week. A hot number feeds the bear path through the 2Y, and a soft one feeds the bull path.
Week ahead
6 US-listed $10B+ companies report. Micron is the one that matters for this tape: it has averaged a ±9.9% move over its last 3 reports, with a consensus EPS of $31.24 against $2.86 a year ago. Macro calendar: Fri Oct 2: Employment Situation — September 2026 (08:30 ET).
Mon Sep 280
Before open
—
After close
—
Tue Sep 291
Before open
After close
—
Wed Sep 302
Before open
After close
Thu Oct 13
Before open
After close
Fri Oct 20
Before open
—
After close
—
US-listed companies with a market cap of $10.0B or more only — 6 reports this week. Timing: Nasdaq's pre/post flag where the calendar has it (MU, ACN, NKE), otherwise derived from the report timestamp.
| Ticker | Reports | Implied move | Avg abs move 1y | Avg abs move 5y | Up rate 5y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | Wed Sep 30 | unavailable | ±9.9% (n=3) | ±7.0% (n=20) | 40% |
| ACN | Thu Oct 1 | unavailable | ±1.7% (n=3) | ±1.9% (n=13) | 46% |
$100B+ reporters this week. The options-implied move is unavailable this week: none of the 160 profile rows in the Sep 26 06:41 UTC payload carry it. Historical columns are the average absolute post-report move over the stated window's reported quarters.
| Ex-date | Ticker | Company | Mkt cap | Per share | Pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Sep 30 | MDLZ | Mondelez International, Inc. | $0.52 | Oct 14 | |
| Fri Oct 2 | CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | $0.42 | Oct 21 |
Curated large-cap earnings universe only, next 7 weekdays: not every $10B+ name, and the rows carry no market cap.
The hopper shows a four-weekday gap (Oct 2–7) before the bank-led Q3 season starts on Oct 13. Until then, rates and payrolls, not earnings, set the direction.