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MacroView Weekly — 2026-W37

Crude cleared $100 and 8 of 11 sectors fell, yet the S&P 500 lost only 0.8% — a 3.71% CPI print pushed the 2-year to 4.56% two days before the FOMC, and memory chips outran wafer-fab equipment by 17.1 points. Week of 8 to 11 September 2026.

Summary

Regime, rates and the CPI that landed on Friday

The week ran four sessions, not five — US markets were shut on Monday 7 September* for Labor Day — and on the surface almost nothing happened: the S&P 500 ETF finished -0.8%, the Nasdaq 100 ETF -0.6%. The market's own volatility surface still reads Risk-On: stress score 17.8, VIX at 15.84, term structure in contango with the 30-day/3-month ratio at 0.852. Implied vol is running 6.85 points above 20-day realised (15.84 vs 8.99), so options are not cheap, but nor are they priced for an accident.

* The Monday gap is visible in every price history in this report: the last five bars are 4, 8, 9, 10 and 11 September.

Underneath the flat index, two things repriced hard. The first is rates. The August CPI released on Friday put headline inflation at 3.71% year on year, +0.17pp against the prior month — accelerating, not cooling. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.95%, +25bp over the past month; the 2-year at 4.56%, +34bp. The front end moved more than the back, so 2s10s flattened to 0.39pp (-9bp on the month). Bond volatility followed: MOVE closed at 82.21, +12.5% on the week, and long Treasuries lost 1.6%. Credit did not care — high-yield spreads at 2.70% are -2bp on the month, investment grade 0.80%.

The second is oil, and it is the bigger number on the page. WTI closed the week at $100.05, +9.4% after +9.7% the week before and +20.2% over the month. Oil implied volatility (OVX) closed at 58.92, +31.0% on the week and in its 91st percentile of the last 5.1 years — the shape of a supply or geopolitical shock rather than a demand grind. Equity vol barely registered it: VIX +9.0% on the week to a 29th-percentile level.

The business-cycle read stayed Late cycle on 4 inputs: 2s10s 0.39pp (flat & stable), CPI 3.71% (hot & rising), high-yield spreads 2.70% (tight & stable) and fed funds 3.63% (on hold). Mega-cap leadership is intact: the Mag-7 basket is 3.0pp ahead of the S&P over three months and 4.0pp over one.

Cross-asset return, week of 8-11 September 2026
  1. WTI crude+9.4%
  2. US dollar (DXY)+0.0%
  3. Gold-0.5%
  4. Nasdaq 100-0.6%
  5. High yield-0.7%
  6. Copper-0.7%
  7. S&P 500-0.8%
  8. Silver-1.3%
  9. Long Treasuries-1.6%
  10. Russell 2000-2.4%
  11. Bitcoin-4.5%
Rates & creditLevelChange, 1 monthAs of
Fed funds effective (%)3.630bp2026-09-10
2-year Treasury (%)4.56+34bp2026-09-10
10-year Treasury (%)4.95+25bp2026-09-10
2s10s slope (pp)0.39-9bp2026-09-10
10-year breakeven (%)2.36+10bp2026-09-11
High-yield OAS (%)2.70-2bp2026-09-10
Investment-grade OAS (%)0.80+1bp2026-09-10
CPI year on year (%)3.71+0.17pp2026-08-01
Unemployment rate (%)4.10.0pp2026-08-01
Volatility gaugeLevelWeek %5-year percentile
VIX — S&P 500 implied vol15.84+9.0%29
VXN — Nasdaq 100 implied vol21.02+4.9%39
RVX — Russell 2000 implied vol19.98+9.2%10
MOVE — Treasury implied vol82.21+12.5%28
OVX — crude oil implied vol58.92+31.0%91
GVZ — gold implied vol25.68-3.6%89
SKEW — S&P tail pricing154.49+1.9%89

The change columns in these two tables carry no gain/loss colour: a higher yield, a wider spread or a higher VIX is a direction, not a return. Every other table in this report is a price return, where green is a gain.

Sectors: 8 of 11 lower behind a flat index

8 of the 11 S&P sectors fell on the week and 3 rose, which is the part the -0.8% index number hides. Energy (XLE) led at +1.7% — the only sector whose gain is more than a rounding error — and Health Care (XLV) was last at -3.6%, a 5.3-point spread top to bottom.

The losing side is where the information is. Health Care at -3.6% on the week is a broad de-rating, not one bad print: it shows up again in the single names below, where 5 of the 12 worst large-cap performers are drug or device makers. Materials (-2.8%) fell despite copper holding roughly flat (-0.7%), and rate-sensitive Real Estate (-1.2%) and Utilities (-1.6%) went with the bond move.

Note the tension between the week and the cycle read. The rotation model's late-cycle sector leaders are XLE, XLB, XLV, XLP, XLU and its laggards XLK, XLY — yet only 1 of those 5 leaders finished the week higher, and Materials and Health Care sat in the bottom three. Technology, a model laggard, finished 3rd of 11. One week is not a rotation, and the model reads months rather than days; it is worth watching whether this becomes one.

US sector return, week of 8-11 September 2026
  1. Energy+1.7%
  2. Communication Services+0.5%
  3. Technology+0.2%
  4. Real Estate-1.2%
  5. Consumer Staples-1.4%
  6. Financials-1.5%
  7. Utilities-1.6%
  8. Consumer Discretionary-1.7%
  9. Industrials-1.7%
  10. Materials-2.8%
  11. Health Care-3.6%
ETFSectorWeek %Month %Year %
XLEEnergy+1.7%+6.7%+47.0%
XLCCommunication Services+0.5%+2.1%-4.0%
XLKTechnology+0.2%-0.6%+38.6%
XLREReal Estate-1.2%-2.4%+2.5%
XLPConsumer Staples-1.4%-2.0%+3.8%
XLFFinancials-1.5%-1.2%+6.4%
XLUUtilities-1.6%-3.3%-0.8%
XLIIndustrials-1.7%-7.3%+13.7%
XLYConsumer Discretionary-1.7%-4.2%-5.3%
XLBMaterials-2.8%-3.1%+11.1%
XLVHealth Care-3.6%-1.8%+19.7%

Energy: the barrel cleared $100, the service complex did not follow

Crude did the work. WTI closed at $100.05, +9.4% on the week and +20.2% over a month, with the intraweek high close on Thursday at $102.48 before a -2.4% Friday. That is the second consecutive outsized weekly leg, and the OVX percentile above says the options market is treating it as a supply story.

25 of the 42 names in the energy set rose and 17 fell — but the gains are concentrated in the people who own barrels. The integrated and national producers took the move: Equinor +6.4%, YPF +5.6%, Petrobras +5.4%, BP +5.2%. Meanwhile the complex that services the barrel did not follow: SLB -2.5%, OIH -1.6% and the midstream pair KMI -1.7%, WMB -1.8% all finished lower. A price spike that services stocks refuse to buy is usually a spike the market does not expect to survive into next year's capital budgets.

Renewables were the clear funding source: 9 of the 11 clean-energy names in the set fell on the week, the worst being Ormat at -10.0%. And the sector ETF itself only managed +1.7% against the barrel's +9.4% — equity investors are pricing the forward strip, not the spot print.

WTI crude, last 22 sessions
WTI front month
$ / barrel102.4881.25
12 Aug11 Sep
Top 10 energy names, week of 8-11 September 2026
  1. United States Oil Fund+9.1%
  2. Equinor+6.4%
  3. YPF+5.6%
  4. Petrobras+5.4%
  5. BP+5.2%
  6. Galp Energia+4.6%
  7. Eni+4.6%
  8. Repsol+4.2%
  9. ExxonMobil+4.1%
  10. Shell+4.1%
TickerNameWeek %Month %Year %
USOUnited States Oil Fund+9.1%+21.7%+111.3%
EQNREquinor+6.4%+9.3%+84.6%
YPFYPF+5.6%+13.6%+105.1%
PBRPetrobras+5.4%+19.4%+67.9%
BPBP+5.2%+7.4%+36.0%
EEni+4.6%+1.7%+60.7%
GLPEYGalp Energia+4.6%+5.3%+31.9%
REPYYRepsol+4.2%+11.4%+97.5%
SHELShell+4.1%+7.4%+35.6%
XOMExxonMobil+4.1%+3.9%+48.0%
TTETotalEnergies+3.7%+4.8%+50.3%
ECEcopetrol+2.9%+4.7%+94.2%
CVXChevron+2.6%+8.9%+36.2%
XOPSPDR Oil & Gas E&P+2.6%+9.6%+50.4%
OXYOccidental+2.4%+5.0%+34.6%
COPConocoPhillips+2.3%+7.9%+48.6%

Semiconductors: memory ran, equipment broke

The chip tape has split in two, and the split is about what the fab is making rather than who it sells to. Over the past month the memory and storage names have run — SK hynix +23.1%, SanDisk +21.5%, Silicon Motion +17.9%, Micron +7.0% — for a median of +7.0% across the 7 memory and storage names here.

Wafer-fab equipment went the other way: a median of -10.1% across 8 names, with Applied Materials -16.7%, Camtek -15.1% and KLA -13.3%. That is a 17.1-point gap between two halves of the same industry inside one month. Memory pricing is a spot market that reprices now; equipment orders are a capital-budget decision about 2027, and the tape is paying for the first and discounting the second.

The AI-silicon complex itself was not the leader this week or this month. NVIDIA finished -5.2% on the week and -2.6% on the month, while AMD gained +8.1% on the week — a rotation within the trade rather than out of it. Both semiconductor ETFs are negative on the month (SOXX -3.6%, SMH -2.8%), so the index-level read understates how much is moving underneath.

Semiconductors: best and worst 1-month return, to 11 September 2026
  1. SK hynix+23.1%
  2. SanDisk+21.5%
  3. Silicon Motion+17.9%
  4. Qualcomm+11.6%
  5. Marvell+8.8%
  6. Micron+7.0%
  7. AMD+6.9%
  8. Intel+2.0%
  9. FormFactor-10.7%
  10. Broadcom-13.0%
  11. KLA-13.3%
  12. Rambus-13.9%
  13. Camtek-15.1%
  14. Applied Materials-16.7%
TickerNameWeek %Month %3-month %Above 200-day
SKHYSK hynix+7.4%+23.1%
SNDKSanDisk-6.1%+21.5%-17.5%yes
SIMOSilicon Motion+11.0%+17.9%+1.4%yes
QCOMQualcomm+7.8%+11.6%-14.1%yes
MRVLMarvell+5.6%+8.8%-15.6%yes
MUMicron-4.1%+7.0%-0.6%yes
AMDAMD+8.1%+6.9%+0.9%yes
INTCIntel+7.5%+2.0%-17.4%yes
NXPINXP+3.9%+1.4%-22.4%no
TSMTSMC+1.0%+1.0%+2.2%yes
ADIAnalog Devices+4.6%-1.5%-9.3%yes
WDCWestern Digital-4.3%-1.5%-20.6%yes
ARMArm+5.0%-2.6%-30.5%yes
NVDANVIDIA-5.2%-2.6%+6.4%yes
TXNTexas Instruments+4.0%-2.9%-10.8%yes
STXSeagate-2.3%-5.5%-10.8%yes
ASMLASML-1.0%-6.2%-8.9%yes
AMKRAmkor+8.3%-6.9%-37.5%no
NVMINova-0.1%-8.4%-36.2%no
LRCXLam Research-3.1%-8.6%-18.7%yes
ALABAstera Labs-6.2%-8.7%-20.7%yes
KLICKulicke & Soffa+5.5%-9.5%-23.9%yes
FORMFormFactor+10.6%-10.7%-17.4%yes
AVGOBroadcom+1.1%-13.0%-5.3%no
KLACKLA-2.7%-13.3%-29.0%yes
RMBSRambus+1.8%-13.9%-40.7%no
CAMTCamtek+1.5%-15.1%-23.4%no
AMATApplied Materials+0.4%-16.7%-19.5%yes

Movers and most-traded: 72 names cleared 6%

72 companies above $20bn moved 6% or more on the week — the screen's threshold — and the direction is lopsided: 51 of them fell, 21 rose. (Last week's report counted 109 such names, so the number of big movers shrank even as the skew got worse.)

The winners are one trade: Hewlett Packard Enterprise +19.4%, Nokia +11.0%, Celestica +10.9%, Ciena +8.9% and Dell +8.2% are enterprise compute, optics and networking — the plumbing around the accelerator rather than the accelerator itself. The losers cluster just as tightly: 5 of the 12 worst are health care or medical devices (NVS, AMGN, MDLN, BSX, SYK), which is the single-name version of the -3.6% the sector ETF printed.

Crowding stayed low. The five most-traded names took 2.9% of the scanned universe's volume, so this was a broad tape rather than a handful of names absorbing it. In the radar below, note that the news-heat component reads zero on every row — the headline-mention leg of the score had nothing ingested for these names this week, so each row's rank comes from price, breakout and volume only. 2 rows were preferred or note lines with no market capitalisation and are excluded.

Biggest gainers

TickerNameWeek %Friday %Month %Market cap ($bn)
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Comp+19.4%+12.4%+5.6%82
ROIVRoivant Sciences Ltd.+16.9%-0.3%+12.9%29
NOKNokia Corporation Sponsored+11.0%+4.8%+7.8%62
CLSCelestica, Inc.+10.9%+6.6%+2.1%44
NETCloudflare, Inc.+9.9%-1.5%-1.6%109
VGVenture Global, Inc.+9.6%+1.9%+15.2%40
BEBloom Energy Corporation+9.0%+6.7%+16.3%81
UMCUnited Microelectronics Corpora+9.0%+2.4%+17.2%57
CIENCiena Corporation+8.9%+4.5%-19.1%50
HPQHP Inc.+8.7%+8.4%+21.2%32
COHRCoherent Corp.+8.3%+4.2%-14.1%60
DELLDell Technologies Inc.+8.2%+12.0%+17.1%361

Biggest decliners

TickerNameWeek %Friday %Month %Market cap ($bn)
CASYCaseys General Stores, Inc.-18.6%-1.9%-26.6%23
NVSNovartis AG-14.3%-0.2%-10.0%261
AMGNAmgen Inc.-13.7%-1.3%-9.3%204
HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.-11.4%+0.7%-18.5%92
CPRTCopart, Inc.-11.2%-2.6%+3.3%28
SHOPShopify Inc.-11.2%+1.7%-14.4%167
CRCLCircle Internet Group, Inc.-11.2%+0.3%+27.1%25
MDLNMedline Inc.-11.1%+0.4%-8.4%44
DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.-10.1%-0.4%-8.1%22
BSXBoston Scientific Corporation-10.1%-0.3%-16.4%62
BKNGBooking Holdings Inc. Common St-10.0%0.0%-18.1%131
SYKStryker Corporation-9.1%+2.1%-20.6%106

Most-traded by hot score

TickerNameHot scoreWeek %Friday %Loudest componentMarket cap ($bn)
HPEHewlett Packard Enterprise Comp8.9+19.4%+12.4%momentum (6.1)82
KHCThe Kraft Heinz Company8.7-1.0%+0.9%volume (7.4)29
DELLDell Technologies Inc.7.7+8.2%+12.0%momentum (4.8)361
SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.6.5+19.4%+5.1%momentum (3.6)13
HPQHP Inc.6.3+8.7%+8.4%momentum (3.7)32
HDBHDFC Bank Limited5.6+0.7%+6.9%volume (2.6)120
NTAPNetApp, Inc.5.5+7.4%+8.5%momentum (3.6)39
COOThe Cooper Companies, Inc.5.4-22.5%-0.5%momentum (2.4)10
HUTHut 8 Corp.5.4+5.4%+8.8%momentum (3.5)12
QRVOQorvo, Inc.5.4+13.4%+3.8%momentum (2.6)10
ARWArrow Electronics, Inc.5.2+5.7%+6.9%momentum (2.9)12
SIMOSilicon Motion Technology Corpo5.1+11.0%+7.2%momentum (3.5)10

Earnings: one print this week, and a season that hasn't paid

This was a between-seasons week: exactly one company in the tracked set reported inside it. Oracle posted 1.63 against a 1.39 estimate on 2026-09-10 — a +17.3% surprise — and the stock traded -1.7% the next session. The company news set attributes the move to cloud-infrastructure revenue growth (SiliconANGLE, 10 September).

The table below is therefore season to date, not this week: of the 35 large caps tracked, 30 have beaten, 4 have missed and 0 came in line (one, Costco, carries no consensus). The pattern worth keeping is that the beat has not been the trade — 14 of the 34 companies with both a surprise and a measured reaction beat consensus and still fell the next day, KLAC by 10.8% on a +5.0% surprise.

TickerNameReportedEPS actualEPS estimateSurprise %Next-day move %
ORCLOracle Corporation2026-09-101.631.39+17.3%-1.7%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.2026-09-023.032.83+7.1%-2.7%
NVDANVIDIA Corporation2026-08-262.222.09+6.2%+8.7%
CRMSalesforce, Inc.2026-08-264.952.35+110.6%+22.6%
WMTWalmart Inc.2026-08-200.810.73+11.0%-0.1%
AMATApplied Materials, Inc.2026-08-133.503.38+3.5%-5.1%
UBERUber Technologies, Inc.2026-08-051.170.83+41.0%+3.4%
LLYEli Lilly and Company2026-08-058.386.01+39.4%+1.9%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.2026-08-041.441.35+6.7%-7.0%
MCDMcDonald's Corporation2026-08-043.383.32+1.8%+2.1%
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.2026-08-030.310.28+10.7%+29.4%
XOMExxonMobil Holdings Corporation2026-07-313.523.68-4.3%-0.2%
CVXChevron Corporation2026-07-316.065.80+4.5%-1.9%
AAPLApple Inc.2026-07-301.911.88+1.6%-7.3%

News themes

1. A hot CPI turned the rates conversation around

Friday's August print put CPI at 3.71% and the wire read it as hardening the case for a hike rather than a cut, two sessions before the Federal Reserve meets. Yields near multi-year highs are the transmission channel the equity tape felt through Real Estate and Utilities.

2. The oil bid is being read as geopolitical

Our own volatility data carries the alert — crude +9.4% with OVX in its 91st percentile — and the Asian market wires name Middle East tension as the risk-sentiment driver mid-week. Friday's -2.4% retreat in the barrel was itself read as supportive for equities, which is the clearest sign that the oil move is being priced as a tax on growth rather than a signal of it. The dataset carries headlines only, not article bodies, so the attribution is theirs, not ours.

3. Memory is carrying Asian semis

The Korea wire puts numbers on the split the chart above shows: Samsung and SK hynix accounted for almost all of the KOSPI's move to 9,000, and SK hynix is the best 1-month performer in our own semiconductor set at +23.1%.

4. Oracle was the week's one large-cap print

Cloud-infrastructure growth drove the report; the next-day reaction was still -1.7%, consistent with the season-wide pattern in the previous section.

5. Ether outran bitcoin, and both lost the week

Ethereum cleared $2,600 intraweek and its ETFs took inflows while bitcoin's did not — but on a Friday-to-Friday basis both are lower: ETH -1.4% against BTC -4.5%. Over a month both are sharply higher (ETH +31.8%, BTC +21.8%), which is the window the headlines are describing and why they read against the weekly table.

Headlines are third-party content reproduced from the news dataset and are summarised, not endorsed. Every price and rate in this report comes from the MacroView datasets, never from an article.

The week ahead

Wednesday 16 September is the week: the FOMC decides two days after a CPI print that accelerated to 3.71% with fed funds at 3.63% and the 2-year already at 4.56%. Whatever the decision, the front end has moved +34bp in a month, so the meeting is being asked to ratify a repricing that has already happened.

Friday 18 September then stacks quad witching on the S&P quarterly rebalance — options and futures expiry plus index-driven flow in the same session — and prices two IPOs, the larger being Holtec Nuclear at a $1,035m deal. Expect volume, and read Friday's single-name moves with more care than usual.

Earnings stay light until Costco on 24 September and Micron on 30 September; given the memory split in section 5, Micron's guide is the one that matters for the chip tape. 9 SPAC and small-cap lock-up expiries in the same window are omitted from the table below as noise.

Scheduled events

DateTypeTickerEvent
2026-09-15DividendGILDGilead Sciences, Inc. Common Stock
2026-09-16MacroFOMC rate decision
2026-09-18ExpiryQuad witching (options + futures expiration)
2026-09-18IndexS&P quarterly rebalance
2026-09-21DividendAVGOBroadcom Inc. Common Stock
2026-10-02MacroEmployment Situation — September 2026

Earnings on deck

DateTickerNameMarket cap ($bn)Date status
2026-09-24COSTCostco Wholesale Corporation401confirmed
2026-09-30MUMicron Technology, Inc.1,101confirmed
2026-10-01ACNAccenture plc113confirmed
2026-10-01NKENike, Inc.55confirmed

IPOs pricing

DateTickerNameExchangePrice range ($)Deal size ($m)
2026-09-18HNUCHoltec Nuclear CorpNASDAQ15.00-18.001,035
2026-09-18OIGOrion180 Insurance Group Inc.NASDAQ Global Select15.00-17.00391
2026-09-30PTTSIYATA PTTNASDAQ Capital