MacroView Weekly — 2026-W31
Week of Jul 27–31, 2026 · generated Fri Jul 31 mid-session — the US market is still open, so day-percentage figures are intraday and will move by the close
Summary
- Volatility reads Risk-On (stress 16.8, VIX 18.58, curve in contango) but VIX is flat on the week and +8.7% today — event risk is being priced forward, not carried over.
- Semiconductors are the month's worst and the day's best: Sandisk -39.4% and KLA -30.4% over 30 days, yet the semis lane's median move today is +5.7%, led by Astera Labs +13.6%.
- Microsoft +19.0% and Amazon +16.3% carried the week (Amazon is the hottest name on the board, hotScore 8.98); Apple -9.1% is the biggest Mag-7 drag after reporting Thursday night.
- Earnings beats are not being paid: the watchlist is 30 beats to 4 misses, but Alphabet (+216% surprise) fell 7.1% and Intel (+200%) fell 7.9%.
- The Fed held at 3.63% for a fifth meeting and the long end repriced — 10-year 4.67% (+0.29pp on the month), 2s10s steeper at +0.45pp, while credit spreads barely moved.
- Oil gave back its supply premium (WTI -4.5% on the week, still +24.3% on the month) but energy equities held — XLE only -2.0%, and every producer listed is higher over 30 days.
Macro Regime & Volatility
The volatility regime reads Risk-On — a composite stress score of 16.8, VIX at 18.58 and the VIX/VIX3M curve in contango (ratio 0.91). That is the calm-surface read; underneath it two gauges are still pinned near five-year extremes. Oil vol (OVX 63.44) sits at the 92.9th percentile of its five-year range and gold vol (GVZ 24.48) at the 87.7th, while Nasdaq-100 vol (VXN 27.55, 77.1st percentile) stays well above headline VIX. Rates vol is the outlier in the other direction: MOVE at 77.09 is the 21.8th percentile, the quietest thing on the board.
VIX is unchanged on the week (+0.0%) but +8.7% today, and the 9-day gauge is +15.6% — the market is pricing event risk into the next fortnight rather than carrying stress from the last one. The Fed held at 3.63% for a fifth consecutive meeting on Wednesday and the long end repriced: the 10-year is 4.67%, +0.29pp on the month against +0.12pp at the front, steepening 2s10s to +0.45pp. Credit has not blinked — IG at 0.81% and HY at 2.87% are 5 and 7bp wider on the month, which is noise.
| Gauge | Level | Day % | Week % | 5Y Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX (S&P 500 vol) | 18.58 | +8.7% | +0.0% | 55.2%ile |
| VIX3M (3-month vol) | 20.38 | +4.5% | -0.6% | 49.0%ile |
| VIX9D (9-day vol) | 17.17 | +15.6% | -2.6% | 55.3%ile |
| VVIX (vol-of-vol) | 97.12 | +2.6% | -3.6% | 51.6%ile |
| VXN (Nasdaq-100 vol) | 27.55 | -10.7% | -1.8% | 77.1%ile |
| MOVE (rates vol) | 77.09 | +3.9% | -3.7% | 21.8%ile |
| SKEW (tail-risk gauge) | 139.90 | +0.0% | -5.0% | 44.0%ile |
| OVX (oil vol) | 63.44 | -6.1% | -8.0% | 92.9%ile |
| GVZ (gold vol) | 24.48 | -0.6% | -2.6% | 87.7%ile |
Cross-asset, the week's clearest signal is oil giving back its supply premium: WTI -4.5% even after a +2.0% Friday. Equities are effectively flat on the week (SPY +0.1%, QQQ -0.2%) with small caps trailing (IWM -0.7%), the dollar is softer (DXY -1.1%), long bonds are lower again (TLT -1.3%) and gold grinds out +0.5%. Bitcoin is -2.6%.
| Indicator | Level | 1-month change |
|---|---|---|
| Fed funds target | 3.63% | +0.00pp |
| 2-year Treasury | 4.22% | +0.12pp |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.67% | +0.29pp |
| 2s10s curve | +0.45pp | +0.17pp |
| 10-year breakeven | 2.27% | +0.03pp |
| IG credit spread (OAS) | 0.81% | +0.05pp |
| HY credit spread (OAS) | 2.87% | +0.07pp |
| CPI year-over-year | 3.73% | -0.54pp |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | -0.10pp |
Sector Overview
Consumer Discretionary (XLY +5.5% on the week, +2.7% today) is the standout, and it is an Amazon story more than a consumer story — the sector's biggest weight reported Thursday night and is up double digits today. Staples (+1.3%) and Financials (+0.9%) round out the only other positive sectors. Utilities (-3.7%) brought up the rear as the long end sold off, with Industrials (-2.3%), Real Estate (-2.2%) and Energy (-2.0%) close behind.
Technology (XLK -1.3% on the week) hides the widest internal dispersion in the report: -6.5% over 30 days, yet the semiconductor complex is ripping today. The month-over-week split matters here — Energy is the best 30-day sector at +10.7% while sitting near the bottom of the weekly table.
| Sector | ETF | Week % | Day % | Month % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Discretionary | XLY | +5.5% | +2.7% | -2.2% |
| Consumer Staples | XLP | +1.3% | -0.2% | +2.4% |
| Financials | XLF | +0.9% | -0.4% | +3.7% |
| Communication Services | XLC | +0.5% | +0.3% | -2.6% |
| Health Care | XLV | -0.8% | -1.3% | +1.1% |
| Technology | XLK | -1.3% | -1.2% | -6.5% |
| Materials | XLB | -1.6% | -2.4% | -1.2% |
| Energy | XLE | -2.0% | -0.9% | +10.7% |
| Real Estate | XLRE | -2.2% | -0.8% | +1.7% |
| Industrials | XLI | -2.3% | +0.0% | -2.7% |
| Utilities | XLU | -3.7% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
Energy — Top Performers
Crude fell 4.5% on the week and energy equities shrugged. The international majors and Latin American producers led: Ecopetrol +5.5%, Eni +4.4%, Shell +2.6% and Repsol +2.3%. The dispersion inside the sector is about oilfield services versus producers — Schlumberger gave back 7.3% this week after last week's spike, the worst energy name in the list, while every single producer below is up over 30 days.
| Company | Ticker | Week % | Month % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecopetrol S.A. | EC | +5.5% | +16.9% |
| Eni S.p.A. | E | +4.4% | +20.1% |
| Shell plc | SHEL | +2.6% | +18.5% |
| Repsol S.A. | REPYY | +2.3% | +20.3% |
| Canadian Natural Resources | CNQ | +1.6% | +21.2% |
| YPF S.A. | YPF | +1.4% | +15.9% |
| Phillips 66 | PSX | +1.3% | +20.0% |
| Suncor Energy | SU | +1.2% | +24.3% |
| Marathon Petroleum | MPC | +1.0% | +17.9% |
| Petrobras | PBR | +0.9% | +18.5% |
| BP p.l.c. | BP | +0.7% | +22.0% |
| Equinor ASA | EQNR | +0.4% | +29.9% |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTE | +0.3% | +16.4% |
The laggards, same payload — note the intact 1-month column:
| Company | Ticker | Week % | Month % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schlumberger N.V. | SLB | -7.3% | +7.7% |
| Williams Companies | WMB | -4.3% | -2.7% |
| Kinder Morgan | KMI | -3.1% | +0.4% |
| Occidental Petroleum | OXY | -2.8% | +16.1% |
| ExxonMobil | XOM | -2.8% | +11.9% |
| ConocoPhillips | COP | -1.9% | +14.3% |
| Imperial Oil | IMO | -1.8% | +13.6% |
| Chevron | CVX | -1.3% | +16.0% |
| EOG Resources | EOG | -0.8% | +13.0% |
Semiconductors — This Month
Semis are the month's wreckage and the day's best trade at the same time. Over 30 days the memory and equipment names are down between 9% and 39%; into the Friday close the whole complex is bid, with the semis lane posting a median +5.7% single-day move — the widest one-day risk-on tilt in this report (havens median -0.35% against a pooled growth median of +4.96%, a 5.3pp spread).
Friday's snap-back, ranked (intraday, rotation lane):
| Ticker | Day % |
|---|---|
| ALAB | +13.6% |
| SNDK | +8.7% |
| MRVL | +8.6% |
| SKHY | +8.2% |
| WDC | +8.2% |
| STX | +7.6% |
| ARM | +7.2% |
| AMKR | +7.1% |
| FORM | +6.7% |
| INTC | +6.5% |
| LRCX | +6.5% |
| AMD | +6.1% |
| AMAT | +6.0% |
| MU | +5.7% |
| KLAC | +4.5% |
| TSM | +3.3% |
| AVGO | +2.6% |
| ASML | +2.1% |
| NXPI | +1.6% |
| QCOM | +0.5% |
Top Movers & Most-Traded
Thirty-five large caps cleared the ±6% weekly screen. Microsoft (+19.0%) and Chipotle (+18.2%) lead the upside; Sandisk (-14.2%) and KLA (-12.0%) lead the downside, both memory/equipment names giving back a month of gains. Enterprise software had a quietly strong week — Oracle, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Accenture and Snowflake all up 9–10%.
| Company | Ticker | Week % | Day % | Month % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | MSFT | +19.0% | +0.7% | +18.2% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | CMG | +18.2% | -2.5% | +7.3% |
| Amazon.com | AMZN | +16.3% | +14.6% | +11.7% |
| Bloom Energy | BE | +15.7% | +3.3% | -26.1% |
| Sandisk | SNDK | -14.2% | -3.7% | -39.4% |
| Regeneron | REGN | +12.7% | +0.1% | +18.3% |
| SAP SE | SAP | +12.3% | -0.6% | +12.9% |
| KLA | KLAC | -12.0% | +2.7% | -30.4% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | -10.9% | -1.8% | -18.2% |
| Oracle | ORCL | +10.4% | -0.5% | -11.0% |
| Salesforce | CRM | +10.4% | +0.0% | +10.7% |
| Apple | AAPL | -9.1% | -9.2% | +2.9% |
| United Parcel Service | UPS | -9.0% | -0.8% | -4.7% |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | +8.6% | +4.1% | -3.9% |
| NXP Semiconductors | NXPI | -8.4% | +0.6% | -11.7% |
| Caterpillar | CAT | -8.4% | +0.6% | -17.9% |
| Meta Platforms | META | -8.0% | +1.6% | -10.6% |
| Micron | MU | -7.6% | -2.7% | -17.6% |
Attention is concentrated: the five hottest names carry 24.9% of the universe's dollar volume. Amazon's hotScore of 8.98 is the highest reading in the table by a wide margin, driven by momentum rather than volume.
| Company | Ticker | hotScore | Day % | Week % | Why it's hot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com | AMZN | 8.98 | +14.6% | +16.3% | momentum 6.5 · 97% of 52w high |
| Apple | AAPL | 6.11 | -9.2% | -9.1% | momentum 3.98 · post-earnings slump |
| Novo Nordisk | NVO | 5.18 | -9.4% | -4.1% | momentum 3.54 |
| Microsoft | MSFT | 4.83 | +0.7% | +19.0% | news 3 clusters · 82% of 52w high |
| Linde | LIN | 4.40 | -6.3% | -6.9% | momentum 2.79 · earnings day |
| Stryker | SYK | 3.93 | -7.3% | -2.3% | momentum 2.66 |
| Sandisk | SNDK | 3.91 | -3.7% | -14.2% | momentum 2.65 · memory unwind |
| Bloom Energy | BE | 3.91 | +3.3% | +15.7% | momentum 2.67 |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | CMG | 3.65 | -2.5% | +18.2% | breakout 0.85 |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | 3.38 | +4.1% | +8.6% | breakout 0.85 |
Earnings Recap
The watchlist's season is running 30 beats to 4 misses, and the price reactions have almost nothing to do with the surprise. Alphabet beat by 216% and fell 7.1%. Intel beat by 200% and fell 7.9%. KLA beat by 5% and fell 10.8%. Microsoft's 12.6% beat is the one that paid, +16.7% on the day. Lam Research is the cleanest read in the table: a 7.7% beat and +18.4%.
| Company | Ticker | Reported | Est. EPS | Actual EPS | Surprise % | 1-day reaction % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | MSFT | Jul 29 | 4.21 | 4.74 | +12.6% | +16.7% |
| Meta Platforms | META | Jul 29 | 7.10 | 6.18 | -13.0% | -8.8% |
| Lam Research | LRCX | Jul 29 | 1.69 | 1.82 | +7.7% | +18.4% |
| Arm Holdings | ARM | Jul 29 | 0.18 | 0.20 | +11.1% | +7.3% |
| Qualcomm | QCOM | Jul 29 | 1.54 | 1.53 | -0.7% | -1.8% |
| KLA | KLAC | Jul 28 | 1.00 | 1.05 | +5.0% | -10.8% |
| Coca-Cola | KO | Jul 28 | 0.92 | 0.97 | +5.4% | +0.9% |
| Intel | INTC | Jul 23 | 0.10 | 0.30 | +200.0% | -7.9% |
| Alphabet | GOOGL | Jul 22 | 2.88 | 9.11 | +216.3% | -7.1% |
| Tesla | TSLA | Jul 22 | 0.32 | 0.04 | -87.5% | -14.5% |
| Texas Instruments | TXN | Jul 22 | 1.91 | 2.14 | +12.0% | -3.1% |
| Taiwan Semiconductor | TSM | Jul 16 | 3.87 | 4.31 | +11.4% | -2.8% |
| Netflix | NFLX | Jul 16 | 0.79 | 0.80 | +1.3% | -7.3% |
| UnitedHealth Group | UNH | Jul 16 | 4.94 | 6.38 | +29.1% | +0.6% |
| ASML Holding | ASML | Jul 15 | 7.98 | 8.81 | +10.4% | -1.7% |
News Themes
Memory and AI-chip complex snaps back. The whole chip complex is up hard into the Friday close after Lam Research's beat and a Samsung warning that the memory crunch runs into 2028 — the semis lane's median 1-day move is +5.7%, led by Astera Labs +13.6% and Sandisk +8.7%. That is a bounce inside a brutal month, not a repair of it: Sandisk is still -39.4% and KLA -30.4% over 30 days.
Yahoo Finance — Intel and AMD Soar 13%, Taiwan Semiconductor Rallies 7% as AI-Chip Stocks Bounce Hard · Trefis — Lam Research Stock's Surge Was Building In Plain Sight
Microsoft and Amazon carry the tape; Apple does not. Microsoft's +12.6% EPS beat drove a +16.7% single-day reaction and leaves it +19.0% on the week. Amazon reported after Thursday's close and is the hottest name on the board (hotScore 8.98, +14.6% on the day, 97% of its 52-week high). Apple reported the same evening and is -9.2%, the single biggest drag in the Mag 7 lane.
Investor's Business Daily — Oracle Stock Jumps on Expanded Google Gemini Partnership, Strong Microsoft Cloud Results · CNBC — Amazon on deck to report earnings after the bell with cloud, capex in focus
The Fed held, and the long end did not like it. The Fed left the target at 3.63% for a fifth straight meeting. The 10-year is 4.67%, up 0.29pp over the past month against the 2-year's +0.12pp, so the curve steepened to +0.45pp — a 30-year yield near its highest since 2007. Rates vol is the calmest gauge on the board (MOVE at the 21.8th percentile of five years), so this is repricing, not stress.
CNBC — 30-year yield hovers near 2007 high as traders weigh Fed decision to hold rates steady
Oil gives back the supply premium. WTI is -4.5% on the week even after a +2.0% Friday, trimming a violent month to +24.3%. Oil vol stays extreme (OVX at the 92.9th percentile of five years) while energy equities barely flinched — XLE is only -2.0% on the week and still +10.7% on the month, and every large-cap name in the report's energy list is higher over 30 days.
Bitget — A Chart Overview of Commodity Support and Resistance (July 29, 2026)
Yen shorts sit at a three-year extreme. The carry-unwind gauge reads 38.6 (“Fuel Building”): speculative yen shorts are at the 6th percentile of three years at net -152k contracts, an extreme that preceded the 2007, 2015–16, 2022 and August-2024 corrections. USD/JPY fell 2.8% this week and AUD/JPY sits at the 97.7th percentile of five years. Fuel, not a timing signal.
WSJ — China Signals Little Appetite for Major Stimulus Despite Growth Headwinds
Week Ahead
Next week's watchlist reporters, with AMD the obvious one for the semis tape after this week's dispersion:
| Date | Company | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Mon Aug 3 | Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | after the close |
| Tue Aug 4 | McDonald's (MCD) | before the open |
| Tue Aug 4 | Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | after the close |
| Wed Aug 5 | Uber Technologies (UBER) | before the open |
| Wed Aug 5 | Eli Lilly (LLY) | before the open |
IPO pricings still on this month's Nasdaq calendar:
| Date | Deal | Exchange | Offer size | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31 | Churchill Capital Corp XIII (XIIIU) | NASDAQ Global | $345M | $10.00 |
| Jul 31 | Apnimed, Inc. (APMD) | NASDAQ Global | $184M | $14.00–16.00 |
| Jul 31 | BOA Acquisition Corp. II (THEOU) | NASDAQ Global | $144M | $10.00 |
| Jul 30 | Jersey Mike's Subs (JMKE) | NYSE | $1.00B | $23.00 |
| Jul 30 | Reformation Inc. (REF) | NYSE | $211M | $15.00 |