What the FED may do in September 18th meeting:
FOMC Economic Projections:
we expect :
- No change in inflation expectation
- Lower growth forecast to 2 percent
- Stable jobless forecast at actual level of 3.7% aiming to prevent it from a substantial rebound upward.
Recent beige book summary has given a mixed image about growth and inflation.
Interest rates expectations
Interest rates expectations by market participants has been dramatically changed from 90% expectation of a September 0.25% rate cut to 51%.
This change is mainly due to signs of a probable deal between the United States and china.
FOMC Policy Decision Scenarios September-2019
According to our monetary policy decision scenario, we and
the market still indecisive about the effect of monetary policy action on the equity market.
Besides a large probability (of 68% for markets and 93% for macro-view.com) was given to a bearish dollar.
Which may endorse our conviction about the beginning of a bear cycle for the greenback .