What the FED may do in September 18th meeting:

FOMC Economic Projections:

we expect :
  • No change in inflation expectation
  • Lower growth forecast to 2 percent
  • Stable jobless forecast at actual level of 3.7% aiming to prevent it from a substantial rebound upward.
FED Policy Decision Scenarios September 2019
 
 
Recent beige book summary has given a mixed image about growth and inflation.
FED Policy Decision Scenarios September 2019

Interest rates expectations

Interest rates expectations by market participants has been dramatically changed from 90% expectation of a September 0.25% rate cut to 51%.
 This change is mainly due to signs of a probable deal between the United States and china.
 

FOMC Policy Decision Scenarios September-2019

 
 According to our monetary policy decision scenario, we and 
the market still indecisive about the effect of monetary policy action on the equity market. 
 
 
Besides a large probability (of 68% for markets and 93% for macro-view.com) was given to a bearish dollar.
 
Which may endorse our conviction about the beginning of a bear cycle for the greenback .